Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5E 0x5e1e…f5b4 world 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$14 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 30L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$1
other 27% +$7
politics 10% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% +$1
economics 2% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 20 +1.0% -8.6% 35% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 20 +1.0% -8.6% 35% 5% -9.6%
all 56 +3.1% -6.7% 46% 7% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 7% -8.8%
10% -15.6% 5% -17.6%
15% -23.8% 4% -25.5%
20% -31.2% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.87 per $1 lost it wins $2.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage474d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 48¢ $33 $31 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $4 $0 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $98 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $33 $0 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $72 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $71 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $78 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $34 −$2 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +23%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $27 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $68 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $72 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 29 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $4 $0 +6%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $1 $0 +18%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 06 $3 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? May 06 $24 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 17 $2 +$1 +65%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change? Apr 14 $23 $0 +2%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 12 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Masters? Apr 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240-249 times April 4 - 11? Apr 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 3? Apr 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Apr 04 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 26 $22 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 18 $1 $0 -6%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Mar 16 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $33 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $34 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $34 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $11 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $12 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $10 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $33 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $33 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $33 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $33 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $33 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $23 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $10 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $34 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $37 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $24 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $10 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $34 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $37 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $37 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.72 · official $30.72 (match) · 192 history records