Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:12:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5E 0x5e1f…1c9e crypto 931 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$1,616 (+2%) realized +$747 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%502W / 427L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days+$219
14 days−$1,316
30 days−$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$656
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 -0.1% -9.7% 54% 54% -8.4%
≤30d 880 -1.8% -11.1% 53% 53% -9.9%
≤90d 929 -0.6% -10.0% 54% 54% -8.6%
all 929 -0.6% -10.0% 54% 54% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 54% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 54% -17.4%
15% -26.5% 54% -25.4%
20% -33.7% 53% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$79 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$747
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses502 / 427
Open positions2
Markets (closed)929 / 931
History coverage42d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 929 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 52¢ 44¢ $79 $67 −$12 (-15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $79 $1 −$78 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $81 +$69 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $80 +$70 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $80 −$77 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$69 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $81 −$78 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $85 +$65 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $83 +$67 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $82 −$79 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $87 +$63 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$69 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $82 +$68 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $82 +$68 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$69 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $87 −$84 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $80 +$70 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $79 +$71 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $84 +$66 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $84 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $95 −$93 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $81 −$78 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$69 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $82 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $85 −$82 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $80 −$77 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $82 +$68 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $81 −$78 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $91 +$59 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $94 −$92 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$69 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $84 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $79 +$71 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $80 −$78 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $85 +$65 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $85 +$65 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $81 +$69 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $84 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $84 −$82 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $82 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $88 +$62 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $84 +$66 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $90 −$87 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $85 +$65 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $87 −$84 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $81 +$69 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $85 +$65 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $81 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $82 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $81 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $80 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $80 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $81 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $81 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $85 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $82 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $83 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $87 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $78 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $80 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $79 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $84 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $84 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $95 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $83 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $81 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $82 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $81 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $85 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $80 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $78 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $83 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.50 · official $75.00 · 1433 history records