Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e1f…92fe crypto 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$261 (+3%) realized +$288 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate79%121W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$155
other 14% −$389
sports 10% +$173
weather 7% −$6
politics 2% +$564
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -30.4% -37.0% 31% 31% -10.9%
≤30d 16 -30.4% -37.0% 31% 31% -10.9%
≤90d 62 -10.4% -18.9% 74% 15% -13.7%
all 154 -5.1% -14.1% 79% 12% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 12% -7.5%
10% -22.3% 3% -16.4%
15% -29.8% 3% -24.4%
20% -36.7% 3% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$47 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$288
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses121 / 33
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage114d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $100 $73 −$27 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $254 +$52 +21%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $403 +$155 +38%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $406 +$223 +55%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $47 −$46 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $404 +$218 +54%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $82 +$322 +392%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $78 −$76 -97%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $300 −$139 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 10 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 10 $10 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 10 $11 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 10 $9 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 10 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 10 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 09 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 09 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 09 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 09 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 09 $10 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 09 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 09 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 09 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 08 $9 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 08 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 08 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 08 $9 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 08 $10 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 08 $9 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 08 $10 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 08 $10 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 07 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 07 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Apr 07 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 07 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 07 $9 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 07 $10 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 06 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 70¢ $119 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 55¢ $93 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 40¢ $94 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $559 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $403 3h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 24h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $629 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $47 26h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $406 26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 39h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 42h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 42h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 43h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 43h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $404 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 99¢ $150 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 80¢ $254 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $78 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $82 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $161 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 66d
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 66d
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 66d
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.73 · official $72.73 (match) · 611 history records