Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e20…ca0b crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$131 (+5%) realized +$131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%26W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day98.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$152
other 7% −$18
world 1% +$2
politics 1% $0
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -1.6% -10.9% 47% 38% -4.5%
≤30d 55 -1.6% -10.9% 47% 38% -4.5%
≤90d 55 -1.6% -10.9% 47% 38% -4.5%
all 55 -1.6% -10.9% 47% 38% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 38% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 31% -13.6%
15% -27.2% 27% -22.0%
20% -34.4% 22% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$17 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses26 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage2d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day98.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$75 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $104 −$12 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$52 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$60 +59%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $15 −$9 -58%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 21 $15 $0 -2%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 21 $39 −$2 -6%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 −$3 -13%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 21 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 21 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $43 −$18 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $314 −$77 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $107 −$102 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $106 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $29 −$24 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $53 −$19 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $76 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $53 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $74 −$23 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $53 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$34 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $49 +$69 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $79 +$44 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $98 +$29 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$5 -16%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $3 +$4 +119%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $129 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $37 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $178 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $92 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $154 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $6 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 1h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 3¢ $7 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $15 1h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 56¢ $18 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 51¢ $18 1h
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 55¢ $19 1h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records