Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e24…3474 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$62 (+6%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$33
other 43% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -23.3% -30.6% 42% 37% -18.7%
≤30d 19 -23.3% -30.6% 42% 37% -18.7%
≤90d 19 -23.3% -30.6% 42% 37% -18.7%
all 19 -23.3% -30.6% 42% 37% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 37% -18.7%
10% -37.3% 26% -26.4%
15% -43.3% 26% -33.5%
20% -48.9% 21% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$21 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$410
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $110 $115 +$5 (+5%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$65 -64%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$6 -62%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$2 +21%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$6 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -25%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $94 +$16 +17%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $112 −$91 -81%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 19¢ $36 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herz BUY 57¢ $101 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $102 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 15h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 61¢ $11 15h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $113 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY 32¢ $10 24h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 24h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $10 24h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $10 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $10 24h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 24h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 24h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $10 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $20 25h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 89¢ $111 25h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 75¢ $94 25h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 9¢ $21 37h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $112 39h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 42h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $51 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $410.35 · official $510.35 · 38 history records