Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e24…4ae1 crypto 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$67 (-1%) realized −$58 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate66%93W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day59.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$297
sports 7% +$32
other 3% +$128
world 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 +13.2% +2.4% 66% 65% -11.9%
≤30d 141 +13.2% +2.4% 66% 65% -11.9%
≤90d 141 +13.2% +2.4% 66% 65% -11.9%
all 141 +13.2% +2.4% 66% 65% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.4% 65% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -7.4% 55% -20.3%
15% -16.3% 45% -28.0%
20% -24.5% 28% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$32 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses93 / 48
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)141 / 144
History coverage4d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day59.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$8 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$11 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$9 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$8 +53%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$9 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $14 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $16 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.37 · official $21.38 (match) · 426 history records