Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:48:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e24…da0c world 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-3%) realized +$1 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$6
other 25% −$1
crypto 16% −$4
finance 9% −$1
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -15.0% -23.1% 0% 0% -21.6%
≤30d 5 -15.0% -23.1% 0% 0% -21.6%
≤90d 5 -15.0% -23.1% 0% 0% -21.6%
all 5 -15.0% -23.1% 0% 0% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 0% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 0% -29.1%
15% -37.2% 0% -35.9%
20% -43.3% 0% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 12¢ 10¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Cabo Verde 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $15 −$4 -26%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $23 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 21¢ $5 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $5 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $4 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $5 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $5 1h
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 82¢ $22 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 2h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 3h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 3h
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3h
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 3h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 3h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.15 · official $31.15 (match) · 24 history records