Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5E
0x5e2d…a9b1
sports · 411 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$708 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$703 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized−$703
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses224 / 184
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions3
Markets (closed)408 / 411
History coverage152d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 3 History 408 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$14
14 days−$212
30 days−$552
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 60¢ 56¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 49¢ 50¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-51%)
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card) Daniel Santos 55¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will the fight be won by submission? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card) Melquizael Costa 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card) Deiveson Figueiredo 19¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Zhang Mingyang 67¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Marco Tulio win by KO or TKO? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the fight be won by submission? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Cam Rowston win by KO or TKO? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will King Green win by KO or TKO? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Khamzat Chimaev 52¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims) Vince Morales 18¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston (Middleweight, Prelims) Ben Johnston 55¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Waldo Cortes-Acosta win by KO or TKO? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Waldo Cortes-Acosta 41¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) Jared Gordon 52¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will Quillan Salkilld win by KO or TKO? No 61¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Priscila Cachoeira 47¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the fight be won by submission? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 −$2 -17%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $4 $0 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$6 +178%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $17 +$17 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $13 +$7 +59%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $30 −$20 -68%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $51 −$27 -54%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $15 +$15 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $15 +$5 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 06 $176 −$73 -41%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $51 −$26 -50%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 03 $202 −$73 -36%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $50 +$20 +41%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $26 −$18 -68%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $61 −$60 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $17 +$3 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $97 −$34 -36%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $9 +$9 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $12 +$3 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $51 +$27 +54%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $47 −$36 -77%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? May 30 $89 −$55 -62%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $508 −$198 -39%
UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims) May 25 $11 +$9 +82%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 17 $62 +$24 +39%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $91 +$79 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $135 −$37 -28%
Will Arnold Allen win by KO or TKO? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $44 −$44 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $86 −$36 -42%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 17 $13 +$7 +59%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 17 $22 +$26 +115%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 16 $13 −$6 -46%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 16 $21 +$8 +40%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $110 +$105 +95%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $114 −$52 -46%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 10 $16 −$14 -88%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $65 −$33 -51%
Will Waldo Cortes-Acosta win by KO or TKO? May 10 $6 −$6 -98%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $14 +$6 +47%
Will King Green win by KO or TKO? May 10 $8 −$8 -99%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $18 +$10 +54%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $13 −$11 -81%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 09 $14 +$6 +47%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 66% +$441
world 17% −$797
other 15% −$215
culture 1% −$5
politics 1% −$128
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 49m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 53¢ $9 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 78¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 49¢ $7 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $6 41h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 49¢ $15 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 61¢ $12 6d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 49¢ $8 7d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai SELL Brendan Allen 99¢ $9 7d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 49¢ $8 7d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Brendan Allen 62¢ $13 7d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) SELL Farés Ziam 20¢ $2 7d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) SELL Farés Ziam 22¢ $3 7d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) SELL Farés Ziam 30¢ $4 7d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Farés Ziam 74¢ $30 7d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main SELL Santiago Luna 12¢ $2 7d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main SELL Santiago Luna 12¢ $4 7d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main SELL Santiago Luna 31¢ $17 7d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Santiago Luna 47¢ $10 7d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Santiago Luna 47¢ $24 7d
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant BUY Priscila Cachoeira 48¢ $5 7d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Édgar Cháirez 48¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +37.5% +24.4% 57% 57% +8.4%
≤30d 39 -10.6% -19.1% 44% 44% -36.5%
≤90d 174 -10.5% -19.0% 43% 43% -14.7%
all 408 -1.5% -10.9% 55% 53% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 53% -10.5%
10% -19.4% 48% -19.1%
15% -27.2% 37% -26.9%
20% -34.3% 26% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.08 · official $28.08 (match) · 2062 history records