Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e2f…0a20 crypto 606 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,075 (-21%) realized −$5,082 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%272W / 333L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +1.7% -8.0% 55% 45% -12.2%
≤30d 193 -11.5% -19.9% 48% 38% -23.9%
≤90d 605 -3.4% -12.6% 45% 40% -17.7%
all 605 -3.4% -12.6% 45% 40% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 40% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 37% -25.6%
15% -28.6% 34% -32.8%
20% -35.6% 28% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$28 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$5,082
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses272 / 333
Open positions1
Markets (closed)605 / 606
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 605 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 0¢ 38¢ $0 $7 +$7 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$15 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$13 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$8 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 08 $12 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $19 −$7 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $13 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 08 $44 −$41 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.75 · official $8.33 · 3500 history records