Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5E 0x5e2f…55ca other 246 markets active 14h ago coverage 118d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 117d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$18,130 (+8%) realized +$18,185 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +152% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +87% what you keep after slip
Net edge+87%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate56%137W / 107L
Whale WR34%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$887per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 118d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$67,768
politics 11% −$93
world 6% +$1,980
tech 2% +$150
sports 0% +$314
crypto 0% +$361
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+128.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +24.2% +12.4% 64% 36% +4.1%
≤30d 57 +17.2% +6.0% 65% 33% -2.2%
≤90d 160 +55.4% +40.6% 52% 33% -42.0%
all 244 +152.5% +128.4% 56% 40% -42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +128.4% 40% -42.4%
10% +106.6% 35% -47.9%
15% ← realistic here +86.6% 30% -53.0%
20% +68.3% 27% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +152% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 34% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +265% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$389 vs −$1,195 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$385
Realized+$18,185
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses137 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)244 / 246
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$887
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $320 $292 −$27 (-9%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $119 $92 −$27 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $500 +$29 +6%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $1,400 +$60 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $7,416 +$1,722 +23%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $300 +$200 +67%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $130 $0 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $300 +$282 +94%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $300 −$70 -23%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $176 −$7 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $4,856 +$130 +3%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $62 +$20 +33%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $69 +$135 +197%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $229 −$110 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $70 +$4 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $70 −$13 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $181 +$3 +2%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $1 +$4 +408%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $30 −$20 -67%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $8 $0 +3%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $41 +$12 +28%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 05 $202 +$27 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $3 $0 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $113 +$67 +59%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $115 −$83 -72%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $705 −$25 -4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $309 +$360 +116%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $36 +$110 +309%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $248 +$45 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $235 +$423 +180%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 26 $34 +$6 +17%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $28 −$8 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $270 +$40 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $472 +$120 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $6 +$35 +556%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $34 −$26 -78%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $70 $0 +1%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $191 +$1 +0%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $286 +$5 +2%
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $397 +$2 +0%
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $464 +$2 +0%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $496 +$9 +2%
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $864 +$2 +0%
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $18 +$1 +4%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $2,390 +$5 +0%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 82¢ $529 13h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $500 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 73¢ $634 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 73¢ $730 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 73¢ $6 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 73¢ $89 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 70¢ $1,385 20h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 70¢ $3 20h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 70¢ $4 20h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 70¢ $8 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $8,601 34h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 55¢ $183 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 50¢ $158 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 45¢ $150 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 30¢ $300 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6,675 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $236 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $537 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $11 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $87 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $13 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $384.74 · official $384.74 (match) · 3500 history records