Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5E 0x5e30…acbf sports 1166 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (335 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$80,655 (+19%) realized +$81,075 · open −$420
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%612W / 491L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$359per market
Trades / day334.5pace
Fees−$3,441est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$28,331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23,614
7 days+$44,410
14 days+$63,467
30 days+$63,467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$89,530
other 24% +$35,608
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (335 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1034 +0.5% -9.1% 53% 50% +3.7%
≤30d 1103 +4.6% -5.4% 55% 52% +7.3%
≤90d 1103 +4.6% -5.4% 55% 52% +7.3%
all 1103 +4.6% -5.4% 55% 52% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover334.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 52% +7.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 47% -2.9%
15% -22.7% 43% -12.3%
20% -30.3% 35% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +57% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$150 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$28,331
Realized+$81,075
Unrealized−$420
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses612 / 491
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$3,441
Open positions83
Markets (closed)1103 / 1166
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$359
Trades / day334.5
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 83 History 1103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 84¢ 84¢ $4,522 $4,537 +$15 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? No 85¢ 84¢ $2,000 $1,965 −$35 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 67¢ 66¢ $1,532 $1,508 −$24 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 65¢ 64¢ $1,462 $1,428 −$33 (-2%)
Spain leading at halftime? No 57¢ 60¢ $1,050 $1,096 +$46 (+4%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Neither team to score first? No 90¢ 90¢ $1,074 $1,081 +$7 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 50¢ $1,050 $1,020 −$30 (-3%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 86¢ 86¢ $1,000 $1,006 +$6 (+1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Under 71¢ 72¢ $700 $715 +$15 (+2%)
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? No 34¢ 34¢ $697 $700 +$3 (+0%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 92¢ 95¢ $652 $668 +$16 (+2%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 61¢ 62¢ $525 $538 +$13 (+2%)
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? No 55¢ 55¢ $525 $520 −$5 (-1%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals No 60¢ 66¢ $472 $516 +$44 (+9%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) New York Mets 52¢ 52¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 51¢ 50¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 83¢ 36¢ $1,121 $486 −$636 (-57%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? No 90¢ 92¢ $437 $445 +$7 (+2%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 45¢ 50¢ $350 $385 +$35 (+10%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 61¢ 69¢ $328 $372 +$44 (+13%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 42¢ $400 $340 −$60 (-15%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? No 72¢ 78¢ $263 $283 +$20 (+8%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 56¢ 47¢ $263 $220 −$42 (-16%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays No 48¢ 51¢ $183 $195 +$11 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 391 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo Musetti Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
ITF San Gregorio: Camilla Gennaro vs Anastasia Abbagnato Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 26 $700 −$700 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Vithoontien vs Biryukov Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Lajovic vs. Forejtek: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics Jun 26 $525 −$525 -100%
Zagreb: Nerman Fatic vs Elmer Moeller Jun 26 $37 −$37 -100%
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $315 −$315 -100%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Set Handicap: Miroshnichenko (-1.5) vs Chen (+1.5) Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Cina vs. Choinski: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Abidjan: Gauthier Onclin vs Mert Alkaya Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Galfi (+1.5) Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Baez vs. Busta: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Basilashvili (+1.5) Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 26 $355 −$355 -100%
Tsitsipas vs. Ruud: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 26 $129 −$129 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 26 $262 −$262 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-29? Jun 26 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 26 $140 −$140 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ruud vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Estevez vs. Soto: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Brunclik vs. Faria: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-05-17? Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 26 $55 −$55 -100%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-2.5) vs Nakashima (+2.5) Jun 26 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Modern SC win on 2026-04-24? Jun 26 $130 −$130 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 26 $125 −$125 -100%
Nishimura vs. Miyamoto: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Cigarran vs. Estevez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $87 −$87 -100%
Will CA Talleres win on 2026-04-19? Jun 26 $437 −$437 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Pridankina vs Oliynykova Jun 26 $175 −$175 -100%
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Valentova (+1.5) Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Sakkari vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Colo Jun 26 $65 −$65 -100%
Wuning: Yi Zhou vs Kody Pearson Jun 26 $225 −$225 -100%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Heat vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 125.5 Jun 26 $56 −$56 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 26 $700 −$700 -100%
Arnaldi vs. Tsitsipas: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Trungelliti vs. Aguilar: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Mrva vs. Coppejans: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Bucharest Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Titouan Droguet Jun 26 $38 −$38 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY No 35¢ $357 8m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Tor BUY No 48¢ $87 9m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Tor BUY No 48¢ $87 9m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals BUY Yes 49¢ $88 10m
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 52¢ $507 19m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $1,063 19m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 67¢ $1,414 31m
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY No 55¢ $532 32m
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 40¢ $132 41m
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 61¢ $531 49m
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 85¢ $15 59m
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 85¢ $42 59m
Set 1 Winner: Risso vs Candiotto BUY Candiotto 16¢ $4 1h
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 83¢ $56 1h
Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5) BUY PortlandFire 42¢ $35 1h
Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5) BUY PortlandFire 46¢ $35 1h
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 83¢ $6 1h
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 83¢ $2 1h
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 83¢ $2 1h
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 83¢ $7 1h
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 83¢ $16 1h
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 83¢ $16 1h
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 83¢ $16 1h
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 83¢ $16 1h
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 83¢ $18 1h
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso 83¢ $4 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Neither team to score first? BUY No 90¢ $38 1h
Emam Ashour: 1+ goals BUY No 86¢ $63 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $3 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Neither team to score first? BUY No 90¢ $832 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,331.05 · official $28,299.73 (match) · 3500 history records