Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:47:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5E 0x5e30…9652 sports 647 markets active 2h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,411 (-2%) realized −$2,585 · open +$174
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%363W / 271L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3,614now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$74
14 days+$19
30 days−$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$3,775
other 19% +$1,390
world 8% −$1,518
politics 6% +$89
tech 4% +$1,628
culture 2% −$121
economics 1% −$369
crypto 0% +$271
finance 0% −$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.1% -8.6% 60% 60% -17.9%
≤30d 30 -9.0% -17.7% 47% 40% -13.0%
≤90d 139 -2.9% -12.2% 61% 59% -7.3%
all 634 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 54% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 54% -11.7%
10% -21.8% 43% -20.1%
15% -29.4% 32% -27.9%
20% -36.3% 21% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$109 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$3,614
Realized−$2,585
Unrealized+$174
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses363 / 271
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions13
Markets (closed)634 / 647
History coverage211d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 634 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 60¢ 98¢ $527 $863 +$336 (+64%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 22¢ 13¢ $1,273 $752 −$521 (-41%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 60¢ 72¢ $605 $725 +$120 (+20%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 64¢ 99¢ $449 $692 +$242 (+54%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $80 $86 +$6 (+8%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $70 $86 +$16 (+24%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $66 $80 +$14 (+22%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $54 $76 +$22 (+42%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 65¢ $72 $65 −$7 (-10%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $63 $64 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 56¢ $63 $56 −$8 (-12%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $49 $44 −$4 (-9%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 24¢ $70 $24 −$46 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $73 +$27 +38%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $68 +$32 +48%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $39 +$61 +158%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $64 +$36 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $107 +$43 +40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$49 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $52 +$153 +291%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $65 +$35 +55%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $109 −$109 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 28 $60 +$40 +67%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $100 +$93 +93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 27 $189 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $809 +$5 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,221 +$72 +6%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? May 26 $27 −$23 -86%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? May 26 $37 −$9 -24%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House May 26 $243 −$18 -7%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 26 $59 −$59 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $47 −$47 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 26 $61 −$61 -100%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 26 $63 −$63 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $57 +$43 +76%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 25 $66 +$34 +52%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 25 $63 −$63 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $46 +$54 +119%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $137 +$63 +46%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 19 $29 −$29 -100%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 19 $65 −$65 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves May 17 $30 +$20 +64%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 17 $29 +$21 +73%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? May 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $62 +$37 +59%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 27 $66 +$33 +50%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $73 +$26 +36%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $61 −$61 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 26 $57 −$57 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $54 +$45 +83%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 26 $79 +$20 +26%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 25 $62 −$62 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $36 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $107 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $111 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $99 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 10d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 11d
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 11d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 11d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $73 11d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 11d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 11d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 11d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 11d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 11d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 11d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $73 11d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 11d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 12d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 12d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 14d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $109 15d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 16d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,614.42 · official $3,614.42 (match) · 2957 history records