Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e31…5394 crypto 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$95 (-6%) realized −$87 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%47W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$78
sports 23% −$32
other 5% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 123 -1.5% -10.8% 38% 38% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 38% -12.8%
10% -19.4% 38% -21.1%
15% -27.2% 36% -28.7%
20% -34.3% 35% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$12 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses47 / 76
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage332d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $42 $35 −$8 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO1) Dec 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1) Dec 04 $11 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) Nov 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Nov 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Nov 11 $6 −$5 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Nov 11 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Nov 11 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 11PM ET Nov 11 $6 −$5 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Nov 11 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 09 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $28 +$41 +148%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Nov 03 $14 +$11 +75%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 03 $27 +$20 +74%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $29 +$76 +262%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $27 +$29 +108%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) Oct 24 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) Oct 21 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) Oct 18 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs FlyQuest (BO1) Oct 18 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Oct 17 $28 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 3AM ET Sep 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 2AM ET Sep 19 $8 −$6 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 12AM ET Sep 19 $8 +$12 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 1AM ET Sep 19 $13 −$10 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 11PM ET Sep 19 $8 −$5 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9AM ET Sep 18 $15 +$21 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 8AM ET Sep 18 $20 −$16 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7AM ET Sep 18 $8 −$7 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4AM ET Sep 18 $8 +$12 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 6AM ET Sep 18 $8 −$7 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5AM ET Sep 18 $13 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 3AM ET Sep 18 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 6AM ET Sep 13 $34 −$23 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 5AM ET Sep 13 $17 −$12 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 4AM ET Sep 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 2AM ET Sep 13 $8 +$12 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 11PM ET Sep 13 $8 +$12 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9AM ET Sep 12 $8 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 7AM ET Sep 12 $8 −$7 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 6AM ET Sep 12 $8 −$6 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5AM ET Sep 12 $13 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 4AM ET Sep 12 $8 −$6 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 1AM ET Sep 12 $8 +$12 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 7AM ET Sep 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 5AM ET Sep 11 $8 −$4 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 11AM ET Sep 11 $8 +$12 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7AM ET Sep 10 $17 +$23 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 5AM ET Sep 10 $8 −$6 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $43 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO1) BUY PARIVISION 25¢ $10 207d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1) SELL FaZe 29¢ $10 207d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1) BUY FaZe 31¢ $11 208d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) BUY Legacy 66¢ $32 217d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 230d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 230d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 230d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 230d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 230d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 230d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 230d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 230d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 230d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 11PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 230d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 230d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 11PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 35¢ $48 232d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 232d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 46¢ $40 232d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 99¢ $69 232d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 40¢ $28 232d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? SELL Yes 61¢ $47 238d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $14 238d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 35¢ $27 240d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 30¢ $14 240d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 28¢ $7 240d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 24¢ $8 240d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 48¢ $27 241d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 246d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.63 · official $34.63 (match) · 354 history records