Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5E 0x5e32…4e3e other 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,505 (-33%) realized −$5,477 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%16W / 47L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$414
7 days+$787
14 days+$787
30 days+$787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$8,234
sports 23% +$3,317
crypto 1% −$70
economics 0% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +6.4% -3.8% 32% 32% +14.2%
≤30d 25 +6.4% -3.8% 32% 32% +14.2%
≤90d 25 +6.4% -3.8% 32% 32% +14.2%
all 63 -5.4% -14.4% 25% 25% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 25% -38.4%
10% -22.6% 25% -44.3%
15% -30.1% 25% -49.7%
20% -36.9% 25% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$453 vs −$261 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$5,477
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses16 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 68
History coverage215d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 48¢ 28¢ $100 $60 −$40 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $203 +$183 +90%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $63 −$62 -97%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$6 -6%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 +$324 +316%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $102 +$85 +83%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $205 +$599 +293%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$22 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $205 +$827 +404%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 +$176 +172%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 +$232 +225%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a Jun 13 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $363 −$221 -61%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $96 −$8 -8%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Atalanta BC vs. Torino FC end in a draw? Jan 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-01-10? Jan 10 $997 −$997 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-01-10? Jan 10 $925 −$925 -100%
Will Algeria vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jan 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-01-10? Jan 10 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jan 10 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-09? Jan 09 $433 −$433 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Jan 08 $100 +$233 +233%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $188 −$188 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw Jan 05 $200 +$568 +284%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jan 04 $100 +$395 +395%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Jan 04 $277 −$277 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $542 −$542 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jan 03 $327 −$327 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $400 +$369 +92%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jan 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Jan 01 $949 +$1,477 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 26¢ $222 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $386 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $63 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $97 2h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $102 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $203 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 64¢ $232 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 56¢ $195 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 18h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 86¢ $186 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $102 19h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $102 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 25¢ $205 37h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $23 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $102 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 36¢ $102 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $335 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.60 · official $484.50 · 107 history records