Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:56:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e35…bff7 sports 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$133 (-13%) realized −$129 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate38%38W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$28
14 days−$46
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$53
tech 28% −$37
other 24% +$26
world 6% −$64
crypto 3% −$30
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -20.7% -28.2% 50% 50% -39.6%
≤30d 96 -28.2% -35.1% 36% 28% -23.2%
≤90d 96 -28.2% -35.1% 36% 28% -23.2%
all 100 -27.9% -34.7% 38% 28% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 28% -24.6%
10% -41.0% 13% -31.8%
15% -46.7% 11% -38.4%
20% -51.9% 8% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$129
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses38 / 62
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions14
Markets (closed)100 / 114
History coverage189d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
AI bubble burst in 2026? Yes 22¢ 19¢ $38 $31 −$6 (-16%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 66¢ 98¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Canada? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+74%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-85%)
Will Spotify reach 1 billion total users in 2026? Yes 10¢ 17¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 24 $28 +$4 +16%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $57 −$33 -57%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $5 +$21 +416%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $20 +$2 +8%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $7 −$2 -32%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Mayar Sherif Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $11 +$2 +17%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 11 $6 −$1 -16%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $9 −$3 -33%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $18 −$1 -3%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: UD Las Palmas (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $50 −$7 -14%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 11 $18 +$2 +11%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $3 $0 -6%
ITF Zagreb: Lucija Ciric Bagaric vs Laura Mair Jun 11 $6 −$1 -21%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $3 $0 -6%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $4 $0 -9%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Laura Hietaranta vs Caijsa Hennemann Jun 11 $4 $0 -4%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $6 +$1 +10%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 10 $6 −$1 -11%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $2 −$1 -60%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -72%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 $0 +22%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $2 −$1 -37%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $7 +$1 +10%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +54%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $4 +$1 +21%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $13 +$2 +18%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 33¢ $32 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 2h
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $24 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 11d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $11 11d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $27 11d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $11 11d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $3 11d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $5 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 73¢ $26 12d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi SELL Benjamin Bonzi 100¢ $0 13d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech SELL Arthur Rinderknech 58¢ $3 13d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth SELL Jiri Lehecka 71¢ $3 13d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Spurs 47¢ $4 13d
ITF Ceska Lipa: Laura Hietaranta vs Caijsa Hennemann SELL Caijsa Hennemann 71¢ $4 13d
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 24¢ $1 13d
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 26¢ $1 13d
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 53¢ $3 13d
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 29¢ $0 13d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Tallon Griekspoor 61¢ $4 13d
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Maxim Mrva 61¢ $3 13d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 20¢ $1 13d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech BUY Arthur Rinderknech 54¢ $3 13d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech BUY Arthur Rinderknech 57¢ $4 13d
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan BUY Daniel Galan 34¢ $1 13d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 28¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.21 · official $96.22 (match) · 346 history records