Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:05:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e39…352c sports 190 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2029 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4,528 (-1%) realized +$564 · open −$5,092
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%177W / 234L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,847per market
Trades / day2029.1pace
Fees−$3,339est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$28,150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$15,373
other 14% +$5,250
crypto 1% −$1,840
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2029 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+63.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 411 +80.3% +63.1% 43% 29% -24.7%
≤30d 411 +80.3% +63.1% 43% 29% -24.7%
≤90d 411 +80.3% +63.1% 43% 29% -24.7%
all 411 +80.3% +63.1% 43% 29% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2029.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +63.1% 29% -24.7%
10% +47.5% 24% -31.9%
15% ← realistic here +33.3% 20% -38.5%
20% +20.2% 19% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$1,260) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +68% → late +92% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
16.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$426 vs −$599 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$28,150
Realized+$564
Unrealized−$5,092
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses177 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$3,339
Open positions39
Markets (closed)411 / 190
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$1,847
Trades / day2029.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 411 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $6,313 $6,078 −$236 (-4%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 89¢ 100¢ $1,780 $1,999 +$219 (+12%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 85¢ 100¢ $1,700 $1,999 +$299 (+18%)
Tunisia leading at halftime? No 89¢ 100¢ $1,780 $1,999 +$219 (+12%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? No 79¢ 97¢ $1,580 $1,943 +$363 (+23%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Under 88¢ 84¢ $1,760 $1,670 −$90 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $1,184 $1,638 +$455 (+38%)
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Tunisia 91¢ 80¢ $1,820 $1,610 −$210 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,580 $1,325 −$255 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $844 $1,007 +$163 (+19%)
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $975 $996 +$20 (+2%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Tunisia 81¢ 50¢ $1,620 $990 −$630 (-39%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $606 $949 +$342 (+56%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Under 72¢ 36¢ $1,440 $710 −$730 (-51%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $643 $647 +$4 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $871 $565 −$306 (-35%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $200 $385 +$185 (+92%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Under 85¢ 94¢ $278 $307 +$29 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $222 $251 +$29 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $299 $225 −$74 (-25%)
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes 86¢ 98¢ $180 $206 +$26 (+15%)
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? Avengers: Doomsday 93¢ 89¢ $189 $182 −$7 (-4%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $157 $177 +$20 (+13%)
Will "The Invite" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? No 92¢ 65¢ $173 $123 −$51 (-29%)
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $108 $109 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 297 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 21 $190 +$120 +63%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 21 $74 −$22 -30%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $880 −$880 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $340 −$340 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1,180 −$1,360 -115%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $71 −$71 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $410 −$410 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $90 +$320 +356%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 21 $880 −$880 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $1,080 −$1,160 -107%
Will "Mortal Kombat 2" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend? Jun 21 $47 −$43 -91%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 21 $121 +$7 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $225 −$171 -76%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $883 −$1,008 -114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 21 $590 −$670 -114%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $880 −$880 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $620 −$620 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $450 −$400 -89%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 21 $730 −$1,200 -164%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $804 −$1,145 -142%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $130 −$130 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $160 +$680 +425%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 21 $610 −$710 -116%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $363 −$984 -271%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $778 −$782 -101%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $730 −$960 -132%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $540 −$650 -120%
Tunisia to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 21 $307 −$296 -96%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $390 −$290 -74%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $160 −$160 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 4 Jun 21 $0 +$3,449 +431130525%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 21 $820 −$2,300 -280%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 Jun 21 $592 −$927 -157%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 21 $40 +$131 +325%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 21 $110 +$290 +264%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $90 +$74 +82%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $780 −$787 -101%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 21 $264 −$264 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $190 +$800 +421%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $149 +$21 +14%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $250 $0 -0%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 21 $730 −$730 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the second highest grossing movie of Jun 21 $494 −$494 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $375 −$527 -141%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $12 −$41 -352%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $460 −$460 -100%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $0 −$10 -15506%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $1,300 −$1,600 -123%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $108 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $9 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $414 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $46 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $6 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $213 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $547 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $602 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,320 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $154 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $287 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $0 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $59 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $41 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $25 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $3 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $36 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $150 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,150.39 · official $28,148.24 (match) · 3500 history records