Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e3d…6143 sports 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$368 (+0%) realized +$263 · open +$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%79W / 85L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$782per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$13,054now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 93d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$6,471
politics 41% −$341
world 9% −$1,125
sports 5% −$910
tech 1% +$61
finance 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +15.4% +4.4% 44% 43% -28.3%
≤30d 126 -2.1% -11.4% 45% 37% -7.0%
≤90d 162 -5.0% -14.1% 48% 38% -6.2%
all 164 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 38% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 38% -6.2%
10% -21.9% 28% -15.1%
15% ← realistic here -29.4% 23% -23.3%
20% -36.4% 16% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$244 vs −$179 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$13,054
Realized+$263
Unrealized+$105
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses79 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions18
Markets (closed)164 / 182
History coverage93d
Avg bet$782
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $10,968 $11,030 +$62 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,534 $1,547 +$13 (+1%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $156 $170 +$14 (+9%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $81 $94 +$13 (+16%)
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Korea Republic 93¢ 92¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Korea Republic 79¢ 78¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31? Yes 60¢ 82¢ $16 $22 +$6 (+37%)
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) South Africa 90¢ 90¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 63¢ 56¢ $12 $10 −$1 (-12%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 92¢ 91¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$7 +36%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +197%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$49 +474%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 +$20 +982%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 $0 -12%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -90%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 +$34 +1115%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $242 +$96 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $403 +$123 +30%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $130 +$16 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $121 +$31 +25%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $351 −$347 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $87 +$70 +81%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $148 −$131 -89%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 +$28 +62%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $141 +$31 +22%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $761 −$294 -39%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $302 +$7 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$8 +165%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $100 +$15 +14%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $121 +$52 +43%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$94 +307%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $554 −$198 -36%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $81 −$59 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 79¢ $40 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Korea Republic 93¢ $60 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 3h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY South Africa 90¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 8h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $10 10h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 10h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $11 10h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 11h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 22h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 22h
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? SELL No 2¢ $0 22h
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY No 18¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,053.70 · official $13,053.70 (match) · 2060 history records