Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5E 0x5e41…3745 other 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4,623 (+9%) realized +$4,271 · open +$352
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%23W / 32L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$884per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$2,952now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$690
14 days+$400
30 days+$687
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$2,318
politics 23% +$2,317
other 16% −$663
sports 2% +$457
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +44.6% +30.8% 43% 43% +34.6%
≤30d 14 -3.4% -12.6% 36% 36% +13.7%
≤90d 17 -7.9% -16.7% 35% 35% -6.3%
all 55 +12.4% +1.7% 42% 38% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 38% -2.3%
10% -8.0% 33% -11.7%
15% -16.9% 33% -20.2%
20% -25.1% 29% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$507) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +45% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$471 vs −$219 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$2,952
Realized+$4,271
Unrealized+$352
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses23 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions6
Markets (closed)55 / 61
History coverage246d
Avg bet$884
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $2,000 $2,535 +$535 (+27%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $100 $166 +$66 (+66%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 38¢ 18¢ $200 $97 −$103 (-51%)
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Yes 20¢ 4¢ $100 $18 −$82 (-82%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $102 −$14 -14%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $101 −$11 -11%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $102 +$14 +13%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $306 +$692 +226%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 26 $205 +$610 +298%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 26 $306 −$300 -98%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals Jun 22 $305 −$300 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $203 −$200 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $202 +$110 +55%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $51 −$50 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 04 $507 +$436 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 03 $7,971 +$1,467 +18%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 01 $8,420 −$449 -5%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $8,355 +$65 +1%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $196 +$153 +78%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 29 $7,015 +$1,234 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $150 +$55 +37%
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th Mar 25 $1,952 +$1,213 +62%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-29? Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-12? Mar 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? Mar 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-11-22? Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18? Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-19? Mar 23 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? Mar 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-10-26? Mar 23 $277 −$277 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-11-02? Mar 23 $520 −$520 -100%
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th Mar 23 $2,924 −$809 -28%
Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg? Mar 23 $939 +$2,662 +283%
Will Jeanne Barseghian be the next mayor of Strasbourg? Mar 22 $654 +$285 +44%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 22 $30 +$20 +68%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. HNK Rijeka end in a draw? Mar 22 $145 +$323 +223%
Will Sophia Chikirou advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris mun Mar 22 $2,811 +$178 +6%
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municip Mar 17 $1,600 −$1,351 -84%
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? Mar 17 $30 −$11 -36%
Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel advance to the second round of the 2026 Par Mar 16 $987 −$72 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $200 −$27 -14%
Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 16 $10 +$51 +512%
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 16 $76 +$208 +275%
Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Mar 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 15 $10 −$6 -57%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 15 $5 −$4 -75%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $42 −$22 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Japan 26¢ $88 22m
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $204 1h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 29¢ $102 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 66¢ $89 22h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 58¢ $115 22h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 73¢ $101 22h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 22h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $102 3d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $102 3d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $204 3d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $102 3d
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $102 3d
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $102 3d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $102 3d
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $102 6d
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $204 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,024 7d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $103 8d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 43¢ $203 8d
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $102 12d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $202 12d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 13d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 13d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $102 22d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $509 30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,951.70 · official $2,951.93 (match) · 161 history records