Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:46:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e43…40d8 other 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$543 (-1%) realized −$533 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate74%80W / 28L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$393per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$782now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$25
14 days+$15
30 days+$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% +$771
other 41% −$1,361
weather 0% −$18
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -12.0% -20.4% 75% 25% -7.8%
≤30d 25 +1.0% -8.6% 72% 20% -7.1%
≤90d 108 -0.0% -9.6% 74% 12% -10.8%
all 108 -0.0% -9.6% 74% 12% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 12% -10.8%
10% -18.2% 4% -19.3%
15% -26.1% 1% -27.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$577) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$76 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$782
Realized−$533
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses80 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)108 / 111
History coverage84d
Avg bet$393
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 98¢ 96¢ $481 $472 −$9 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $275 $273 −$1 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1,152 +$26 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, Jun 12 $129 +$14 +11%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 11 $17 $0 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $25 −$16 -64%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, Jun 02 $117 −$10 -9%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June May 31 $45 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, May 31 $33 +$4 +11%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June May 31 $1,596 +$43 +3%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, May 28 $610 +$30 +5%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 26 $376 +$22 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $73 +$20 +27%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 26 $150 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 26 $1,486 +$13 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 20 $359 +$25 +7%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 20 $577 −$52 -9%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 18 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 18 $1,449 +$111 +8%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $275 +$24 +9%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 17 $662 +$24 +4%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 17 $713 +$30 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or higher on May 16? May 17 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 16? May 16 $50 −$19 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $186 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $291 −$13 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $227 +$11 +5%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15 May 15 $1,644 +$18 +1%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $24 +$4 +15%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2 May 15 $1,244 +$74 +6%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $14 −$7 -49%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $832 +$8 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $517 +$36 +7%
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $421 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $1,435 +$5 +0%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $554 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $1,207 +$41 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $1,191 +$16 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12 May 12 $781 +$8 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12 May 11 $231 +$7 +3%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2 May 10 $178 −$23 -13%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, May 09 $109 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2 May 06 $417 +$9 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $301 −$33 -11%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May May 04 $48 +$18 +38%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5 May 04 $680 +$103 +15%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5 May 04 $687 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 02 $110 −$5 -4%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? May 01 $2,473 −$1,595 -64%
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? May 01 $161 +$24 +15%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1 Apr 30 $702 +$48 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY No 95¢ $56 12m
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY No 95¢ $26 15m
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY No 98¢ $193 1h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, BUY No 97¢ $36 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 11h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $687 11h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 13h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $249 14h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $97 14h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $118 14h
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 SELL No 100¢ $100 14h
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 BUY No 98¢ $490 28h
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 SELL No 100¢ $14 2d
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 BUY No 98¢ $7 2d
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 SELL No 100¢ $77 2d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY No 97¢ $65 2d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY No 97¢ $12 2d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY No 97¢ $17 2d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY No 97¢ $84 2d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, BUY No 90¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, BUY No 90¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, BUY No 90¢ $45 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, BUY No 90¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $781.89 · official $781.89 (match) · 696 history records