Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e43…2578 other 394 markets active 0h ago coverage 406d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,364 (-10%) realized −$1,349 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%229W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$345
7 days+$74
14 days−$69
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1,306
sports 25% +$153
world 11% −$20
tech 5% +$24
politics 4% −$127
crypto 2% −$8
culture 1% +$14
economics 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +8.1% -2.2% 59% 56% -6.6%
≤30d 96 +5.5% -4.5% 64% 61% -11.2%
≤90d 231 +7.0% -3.2% 61% 60% -10.0%
all 382 +2.7% -7.1% 60% 47% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 47% -18.2%
10% -16.0% 35% -26.0%
15% -24.1% 25% -33.2%
20% -31.6% 16% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$25 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

406d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized−$1,349
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses229 / 153
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions12
Markets (closed)382 / 394
History coverage406d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 382 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $143 $140 −$3 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana leading at halftime? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 82¢ 89¢ $16 $18 +$1 (+9%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-17%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 65¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 88¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 84¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $75 +$3 +4%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $173 +$184 +106%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $64 +$36 +57%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $78 +$81 +104%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $208 −$182 -87%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $36 +$64 +180%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $43 +$57 +134%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 +$43 +66%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +77%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 +$11 +134%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $40 −$29 -74%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$6 +43%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $56 +$18 +33%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $81 −$47 -58%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$18 +30%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $33 +$13 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $149 +$46 +31%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $21 +$18 +84%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$5 +20%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $21 +$65 +312%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $36 +$6 +18%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $65 +$35 +54%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $69 −$61 -90%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $43 −$42 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $91 +$49 +54%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$12 -83%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +75%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $29 +$3 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $61 +$39 +64%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $45 +$44 +100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $9 +$6 +62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 +$31 +48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $52 +$45 +86%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $83 −$60 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 94¢ $24 2m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $22 2m
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 13m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 20m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 21m
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $97 22m
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 23m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $15 41m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 41m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 47m
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $56 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $8 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $56 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $98 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 89¢ $37 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 89¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 89¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 89¢ $9 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 74¢ $74 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $64 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $75 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $11 2h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 2h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $131 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $25 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 94¢ $24 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $33 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321.85 · official $321.85 (match) · 1578 history records