Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5E 0x5e47…cefd other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,265 (-36%) realized −$1,273 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$1,288
sports 8% −$153
crypto 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 38% -58.1%
≤30d 24 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 38% -58.1%
≤90d 24 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 38% -58.1%
all 24 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 38% -58.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 38% -58.1%
10% -28.7% 29% -62.1%
15% -35.6% 25% -65.8%
20% -41.9% 12% -69.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$133 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$408
Realized−$1,273
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 29
History coverage6d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? No 59¢ 60¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $252 +$116 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$4 +7%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $121 −$120 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $102 +$122 +120%
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 24 $20 +$6 +28%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 +$37 +712%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $67 +$33 +50%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $104 −$103 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $69 +$31 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 59¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 15h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $307 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $813 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 36¢ $102 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 36¢ $61 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $10 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $20 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-2 BUY 32¢ $204 5d
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 5d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 5d
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 5d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 36¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.10 · official $408.12 (match) · 52 history records