Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5E 0x5e4c…7d17 crypto 423 markets active 8h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+3%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate70%265W / 114L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$1
14 days+$13
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$2
sports 34% +$4
other 27% $0
politics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 +0.6% -9.0% 65% 62% -9.9%
≤30d 379 +2.0% -7.7% 70% 62% -8.1%
≤90d 379 +2.0% -7.7% 70% 62% -8.1%
all 379 +2.0% -7.7% 70% 62% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 62% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 45% -16.9%
15% -24.6% 32% -24.9%
20% -32.0% 20% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses265 / 114
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions44
Markets (closed)379 / 423
History coverage20d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 379 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 86¢ 89¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group B UNO MILLE 66¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+51%)
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Azure Dragon Gaming 71¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage QoR 76¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs the bug 85¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Valorant: DRX Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season DRX Academy 68¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ALKA 51¢ 51¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Angel Reese have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Playoffs Los Angeles Thieves 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: REBORN vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D Jun 24 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +18%
Honor of Kings: Rogue Warriors vs Kuaishou Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick Jun 24 $1 $0 -44%
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 24 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +36%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $1 +$1 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +15%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $1 $0 +45%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +37%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 24 $1 +$1 +53%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso Jun 24 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$2 +151%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +21%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -43%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +89%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +32%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Ch BUY UNO MILLE 66¢ $1 7h
Valorant: DRX Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regul BUY DRX Academy 68¢ $1 7h
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom (BO3) - The International North America Clo BUY the bug 85¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters - Map 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 55¢ $1 7h
Valorant: REBORN vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D BUY REBORN 64¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Acend 100¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 62¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 10h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 99¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 59¢ $1 14h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 14h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MOUZ 100¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 15h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso SELL ONSIDE GAMING 84¢ $1 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 15h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 15h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 15h
Honor of Kings: Rogue Warriors vs Kuaishou Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Rogue Warriors 90¢ $1 15h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 71¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY largadosypelados 89¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.26 · official $47.26 (match) · 828 history records