Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5E 0x5e50…a3e5 crypto 776 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 148d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,360 (-12%) realized −$4,360 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate80%674W / 165L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 148d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$2,073
world 4% −$45
economics 2% +$902
finance 1% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 275 -25.6% -32.7% 60% 22% -19.5%
≤30d 275 -25.6% -32.7% 60% 22% -19.5%
≤90d 275 -25.6% -32.7% 60% 22% -19.5%
all 839 -9.8% -18.4% 80% 10% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 10% -14.2%
10% -26.2% 5% -22.4%
15% -33.3% 3% -29.9%
20% -39.9% 2% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 40% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$27 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,360
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses674 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)839 / 776
History coverage148d ⚠
Avg bet$48
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 839 Trades
no open positions (126 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $142 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $95 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records