Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e50…c665 other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$45 (-8%) realized −$77 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%12W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$13
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$77
sports 45% +$78
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -66.6% -69.8% 4% 4% +0.5%
≤30d 43 -31.0% -37.6% 16% 16% -17.3%
≤90d 44 -32.6% -39.0% 16% 16% -20.5%
all 58 -26.0% -33.1% 21% 19% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 19% -17.5%
10% -39.5% 17% -25.4%
15% -45.3% 17% -32.6%
20% -50.7% 16% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$6 · ×3.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses12 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions15
Markets (closed)58 / 73
History coverage172d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 20¢ 36¢ $50 $91 +$41 (+82%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $17 +$114 +667%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Ghana? Jun 23 $4 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $2 +$5 +226%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $20 −$19 -98%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $2 +$5 +262%
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Jun 17 $2 +$4 +216%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $2 +$6 +307%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov Jun 17 $2 +$10 +510%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $44 −$16 -36%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 30 $34 −$34 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $23 +$49 +212%
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $12 −$12 -100%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $12 −$12 -100%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $12 +$6 +52%
Australian Open Men's: Francisco Cerundolo vs Damir Dzumhur Jan 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 20¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Ghana? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 26h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 26h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 27h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 27h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 30h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 32h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 32h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 32h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 32h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 32h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 35h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 35h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 35h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 35h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.72 · official $141.72 (match) · 107 history records