Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

5E 0x5e51…42ce sports 313 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠

BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ bot/MM pace (415 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage

Total PnL +$3,753 (+3%) realized +$4,096 · open −$343

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate79%259W / 70L

Whale WR88%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$472per market

Trades / day414.7pace

Fees−$1,010est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$8,893now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (415 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-3.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	296	+4.6%	-5.3%	78%	19%	-12.1%
≤30d	329	+7.1%	-3.1%	79%	22%	-9.7%
≤90d	329	+7.1%	-3.1%	79%	22%	-9.7%
all	329	+7.1%	-3.1%	79%	22%	-9.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover414.7 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-3.1%	22%	-9.7%
10% ← realistic here	-12.4%	15%	-18.3%
15%	-20.8%	12%	-26.2%
20%	-28.6%	9%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +9% → late +5% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$43 vs −$154 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.06 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$8,893

Realized+$4,096

Unrealized−$343

Win rate (resolved)79%

Wins / losses259 / 70

Whale WR (big bets)88%

Est. fees paid−$1,010

Open positions15

Markets (closed)329 / 313

History coverage8d ⚠

Avg bet$472

Trades / day414.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 15 History 329 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	89¢	88¢	$4,043	$4,010	−$33 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$2,391	$2,080	−$311 (-13%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia?	No	99¢	99¢	$1,183	$1,185	+$2 (+0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Haiti?	No	99¢	99¢	$314	$314	+$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti?	No	98¢	98¢	$293	$293	+$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	91¢	90¢	$228	$224	−$4 (-2%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco?	No	84¢	84¢	$210	$211	+$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia?	No	95¢	95¢	$190	$190	−$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti?	No	99¢	99¢	$99	$99	−$0 (-0%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In	T1	92¢	94¢	$92	$94	+$2 (+3%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti?	No	92¢	93¢	$83	$84	+$1 (+1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Under	82¢	82¢	$82	$82	+$0 (+1%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner	T1	80¢	86¢	$22	$24	+$2 (+7%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?	Yes	80¢	26¢	$8	$3	−$5 (-68%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$0	$0	−$0 (-40%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Knicks (-13.5)	Jun 19	$17	−$17	-100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)	Jun 19	$10	−$9	-88%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5)	Jun 19	$14	−$14	-100%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5)	Jun 19	$7	−$4	-63%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5)	Jun 19	$0	+$1	+628%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5)	Jun 19	$44	−$44	-100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5)	Jun 19	$0	$0	-100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)	Jun 19	$23	−$23	-100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 19	$1,458	−$373	-26%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5)	Jun 19	$37	−$37	-100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 19	$2	+$913	+41494%
Spread: Knicks (-15.5)	Jun 19	$13	−$13	-100%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W	Jun 19	$148	−$137	-93%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5)	Jun 19	$15	−$15	-100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5)	Jun 19	$178	−$177	-100%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5)	Jun 19	$17	−$17	-100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5)	Jun 19	$3	−$3	-100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)	Jun 19	$47	−$46	-98%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5)	Jun 19	$19	−$19	-100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia	Jun 19	$43	−$36	-84%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5)	Jun 19	$2	−$2	-100%
Spread: Knicks (-17.5)	Jun 19	$14	−$14	-100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Jun 19	$27	−$27	-100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 19	$2,810	−$2,378	-85%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)	Jun 19	$21	−$21	-100%
Spread: Knicks (-21.5)	Jun 19	$1	−$1	-100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)	Jun 19	$64	−$64	-100%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5)	Jun 19	$3	−$3	-100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)	Jun 19	$51	−$51	-100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$15	$0	+0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$264	$0	+0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$20	+$8	+39%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	Jun 19	$222	+$28	+12%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Korea Republic?	Jun 19	$334	+$7	+2%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic?	Jun 19	$492	+$8	+2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5	Jun 19	$299	+$1	+0%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)	Jun 19	$194	+$6	+3%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 19	$77	+$23	+30%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$82	+$18	+21%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$528	+$1	+0%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$300	$0	+0%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$99	+$1	+1%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$289	+$11	+4%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5	Jun 19	$110	+$1	+1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$471	+$29	+6%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$482	+$18	+4%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$2,260	+$33	+1%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 18	$455	+$25	+6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5	Jun 18	$793	+$4	+0%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$68	+$11	+17%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco?	BUY No	84¢	$17	5m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco?	BUY No	84¢	$176	6m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco?	BUY No	84¢	$17	10m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti?	BUY No	92¢	$12	1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti?	BUY No	92¢	$59	1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti?	BUY No	98¢	$33	1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti?	BUY No	98¢	$49	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY No	91¢	$228	1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti?	BUY No	92¢	$12	1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti?	BUY No	98¢	$41	1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	82¢	$81	2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia?	BUY No	95¢	$190	2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	82¢	$1	2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Haiti?	BUY No	99¢	$314	2h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti?	BUY No	98¢	$41	2h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti?	BUY No	98¢	$49	3h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti?	BUY No	98¢	$41	3h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti?	BUY No	99¢	$99	3h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti?	BUY No	98¢	$41	3h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia?	BUY No	98¢	$295	6h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia?	BUY No	99¢	$887	6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	100¢	$12	7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	100¢	$3	7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	100¢	$264	7h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)	BUY Korea Republic	97¢	$63	8h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)	BUY Korea Republic	97¢	$34	8h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)	BUY Korea Republic	97¢	$43	8h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)	BUY Korea Republic	97¢	$54	8h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY No	89¢	$222	9h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Korea Republic	77¢	$77	9h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,893.46 · official $8,893.46 (match) · 3500 history records