Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:34:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e51…ccaa other 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+0%) realized +$68 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate38%50W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$44
14 days−$78
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$999
sports 20% +$1,487
politics 14% +$126
finance 8% −$34
world 8% −$168
crypto 8% −$537
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +11.2% +0.6% 42% 35% -8.1%
≤30d 131 -6.3% -15.2% 38% 30% -8.8%
≤90d 131 -6.3% -15.2% 38% 30% -8.8%
all 131 -6.3% -15.2% 38% 30% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 30% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 18% -17.5%
15% -30.7% 13% -25.5%
20% -37.5% 11% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$35 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$68
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses50 / 81
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions13
Markets (closed)131 / 144
History coverage20d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 89¢ 44¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-51%)
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1? Yes 43¢ 31¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-28%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-90%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 73¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 90¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 20¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 18 $23 $0 +1%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $163 +$675 +415%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +28%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 −$39 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $641 −$637 -99%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $1 +$2 +238%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 18 $1 +$4 +365%
ITF Haskovo: Valeriia Artemeva vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $372 +$31 +8%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $116 −$113 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $44 −$43 -97%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 17 $57 −$9 -16%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $383 +$61 +16%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $379 +$122 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$81 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $343 +$183 +53%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $29 −$28 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $168 +$152 +90%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $78 −$76 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $161 −$158 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $153 +$354 +231%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 16 $78 +$3 +4%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $176 −$173 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $142 −$139 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $175 +$242 +138%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $121 −$119 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $22 +$185 +859%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $167 −$166 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $76 +$24 +32%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $126 +$334 +265%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $640 −$537 -84%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$12 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 28m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 28m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $838 31m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1 31m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 36m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 36m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 48m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 53m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 54m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 56m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $80 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $201 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $81 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $16 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $74 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $16 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $74 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $1 12h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Petja Drame 21¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.78 · official $41.78 (match) · 475 history records