Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:18:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e53…922d sports 346 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,461 (-27%) realized −$2,408 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%136W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days−$3,586
14 days−$3,394
30 days−$2,979
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$113
politics 35% −$2,248
other 11% −$161
finance 2% −$56
world 1% +$4
crypto 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -68.8% -71.8% 14% 13% -78.8%
≤30d 164 -38.3% -44.2% 27% 26% -59.4%
≤90d 328 -7.2% -16.1% 41% 40% -35.9%
all 328 -7.2% -16.1% 41% 40% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 40% -35.9%
10% -24.1% 39% -42.0%
15% -31.4% 38% -47.6%
20% -38.2% 38% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$28 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$2,408
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses136 / 192
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions18
Markets (closed)328 / 346
History coverage77d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 46¢ 42¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 50¢ 44¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 38¢ 37¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? Yes 14¢ 3¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by less than 3%? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 90,000 and 100,000 voters? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 +$102 +496%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 23 $20 −$1 -3%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$17 +83%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $20 +$22 +109%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$15 +76%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $20 +$16 +80%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$17 -84%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 +$17 +82%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$10 +102%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +59%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +17%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $31 −$10 -33%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$20 -49%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $41 −$20 -49%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$75 +365%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 18 $20 −$6 -28%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-5.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 47¢ $20 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $68 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 8h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 8h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $20 8h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $20 8h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 8h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 47¢ $20 31h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $20 31h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 43¢ $20 31h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 54¢ $20 31h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 56¢ $20 31h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 45¢ $20 31h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 32h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 2d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 57¢ $20 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $20 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $20 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $20 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3d
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL Cincinnati Reds 82¢ $0 3d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL Cincinnati Reds 90¢ $35 3d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $20 3d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 51¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.87 · official $194.49 (match) · 775 history records