Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5E 0x5e55…ec55 sports 163 markets active 3h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$248 (-6%) realized −$256 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate68%109W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days−$61
14 days−$131
30 days−$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$159
other 8% −$99
world 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -4.6% -13.7% 63% 59% -15.1%
≤30d 157 -7.8% -16.6% 68% 41% -15.8%
≤90d 160 -7.8% -16.6% 68% 40% -16.1%
all 160 -7.8% -16.6% 68% 40% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 40% -16.1%
10% -24.6% 31% -24.1%
15% -31.9% 25% -31.4%
20% -38.6% 14% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$256
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses109 / 51
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions3
Markets (closed)160 / 163
History coverage30d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 55¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+82%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs INOX Division 70¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+43%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage KOLESIE 48¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $8 +$2 +25%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $5 +$5 +100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $6 +$4 +67%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$6 -72%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $7 +$3 +42%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $7 +$3 +38%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $14 −$4 -30%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $6 +$4 +70%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $9 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $7 +$3 +36%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $10 +$10 +98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $7 +$3 +39%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $7 +$2 +33%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $6 +$4 +54%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $7 +$3 +42%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $7 +$3 +36%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $106 −$95 -90%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $5 +$5 +114%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $6 −$5 -76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $7 −$6 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $123 +$7 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $8 +$2 +24%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +61%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 64¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY INOX Division 59¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 64¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 34¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 23¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 48¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 55¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 70¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Rooster 52¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 59¢ $6 6h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 70¢ $7 6h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 80¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 80¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $3 7h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 20¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $5 21h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 72¢ $7 21h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 11¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 90¢ $9 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 24h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 90¢ $9 24h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 52¢ $5 24h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL illwill 99¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European SELL KOLESIE 99¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 95¢ $9 26h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Nuclear TigeRES 99¢ $20 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.94 · official $24.94 (match) · 360 history records