Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:38:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5E 0x5e5c…f493 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$16
other 27% $0
politics 7% $0
weather 3% −$5
sports 3% +$15
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -12.5% -20.8% 0% 0% -20.8%
≤30d 16 +1.8% -7.9% 44% 12% -7.5%
≤90d 16 +1.8% -7.9% 44% 12% -7.5%
all 41 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 12% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 12% -7.3%
10% -15.0% 5% -16.2%
15% -23.2% 2% -24.3%
20% -30.7% 2% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.36 per $1 lost it wins $4.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage481d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $15 −$2 -12%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $63 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $54 +$12 +22%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $79 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $43 +$3 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 +11%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $38 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $75 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 06 $23 $0 +1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? May 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will the next Pope be from Oceania? Apr 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Mar 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Mar 31 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 31 $27 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 30 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on March 26? Mar 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $44 $0 +1%
North Dakota vs. St. Thomas - Minnesota Mar 22 $10 +$1 +15%
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights Mar 22 $15 +$4 +28%
Michigan State vs. Maryland Feb 27 $5 +$10 +178%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on February 27? Feb 26 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 5h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $57 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $44 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $3 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $47 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 26¢ $19 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $4 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $25 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $46 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $46 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $46 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $45 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.46 · official $50.46 (match) · 128 history records