Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

5E 0x5e63…7788 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$16 (+29%) realized +$16 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip

Net edge+24%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%6W / 3L

Drawdown52%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day3.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit58%portable

Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+28.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+42.3%	+28.7%	67%	67%	+22.6%
≤30d	9	+42.3%	+28.7%	67%	67%	+22.6%
≤90d	9	+42.3%	+28.7%	67%	67%	+22.6%
all	9	+42.3%	+28.7%	67%	67%	+22.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+28.7%	67%	+22.6%
10%	+16.4%	67%	+10.9%
15%	+5.2%	56%	+0.2%
20%	-5.2%	44%	-9.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 50% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +42% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$14

Realized+$16

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses6 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)9 / 12

History coverage4d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day3.5

Drawdown52%

Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Under	51¢	50¢	$6	$6	−$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Spain	56¢	56¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Uruguay	41¢	40¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 15	$3	+$3	+92%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 15	$2	+$6	+248%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$5	+$6	+108%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$4	+$1	+26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 14	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 14	$5	+$8	+164%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$9	+$4	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	51¢	$6	1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	41¢	$3	1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	56¢	$5	1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	51¢	$3	22h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$2	22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$5	22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	54¢	$5	31h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$5	32h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	78¢	$4	33h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	BUY Switzerland	60¢	$3	45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$13	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	37¢	$5	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$9	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.31 · official $14.31 (match) · 21 history records