Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5E
0x5e63…134f
crypto · 374 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$370 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$358 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$17
Realized−$358
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses112 / 261
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)373 / 374
History coverage240d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 1 History 373 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$27
14 days−$50
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 75¢ 44¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-42%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 73¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 19? Up 49¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Up 91¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 50¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 2? Yes 35¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 84¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 40¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 61¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? No 14¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 90¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 71¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 81¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will AutoZone (AZO) beat quarterly earnings? No 58¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 55¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 47¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $40 −$1 -1%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $29 −$2 -6%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $32 −$5 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $19 −$1 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $55 −$3 -6%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $9 $0 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 12 $9 −$2 -25%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 12 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $23 $0 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 11 $14 −$1 -6%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 11 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $17 −$1 -8%
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $14 −$1 -10%
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 10 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Maria Wanjera Ghimenton win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral Jun 08 $10 $0 -2%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30? Jun 07 $22 −$1 -3%
Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead under Jun 06 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by June 30? Jun 06 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 -1%
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 05 $10 $0 -4%
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -2%
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 05 $12 $0 -3%
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? Jun 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3 Jun 03 $8 $0 -2%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 03 $25 $0 -1%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d Jun 02 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead Jun 02 $1 $0 -4%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 02 $21 −$4 -19%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? May 31 $9 $0 -2%
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? May 31 $1 $0 -15%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? May 31 $14 $0 -1%
Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Ma May 30 $23 $0 -2%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? May 30 $52 −$1 -2%
Will "The Crash" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? May 30 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c May 30 $10 $0 -4%
Will "Ladies First" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 29 $0 $0 -14%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 29 $4 $0 -11%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $3 $0 -3%
Will AS Saint-Etienne achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for th May 28 $13 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 42% −$205
politics 15% −$44
crypto 13% −$22
finance 11% −$39
tech 6% −$19
world 5% −$6
culture 4% −$2
sports 3% −$29
weather 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 19m
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 37m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 10¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 86¢ $17 1h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 10¢ $0 4h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 10¢ $2 4h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes $0 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 78¢ $16 11h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes $1 11h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 14¢ $0 11h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 14¢ $1 11h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 14¢ $0 11h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 14¢ $1 11h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 14¢ $0 11h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 14¢ $0 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? SELL Yes 43¢ $9 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $2 14h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No $0 14h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 67¢ $13 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 15h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 57¢ $4 16h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 57¢ $3 16h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 57¢ $4 16h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 57¢ $0 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -15.8% -23.8% 4% 0% -13.9%
≤30d 110 -12.9% -21.2% 2% 0% -17.2%
≤90d 349 -18.0% -25.8% 27% 20% -17.1%
all 373 -16.0% -24.0% 30% 23% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 23% -16.8%
10% -31.3% 17% -24.7%
15% -37.9% 11% -32.0%
20% -44.0% 8% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.40 · official $17.40 (match) · 1203 history records