Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:11:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e69…755b crypto 310 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$427 (+4%) realized +$631 · open −$204
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate53%163W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$521
7 days+$521
14 days+$521
30 days+$499
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$369
sports 40% +$502
other 11% +$417
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +39.8% +26.4% 23% 23% +39.5%
≤30d 67 +22.1% +10.5% 31% 31% +34.2%
≤90d 174 +15.7% +4.6% 51% 24% +1.5%
all 307 +6.5% -3.6% 53% 28% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 28% -2.5%
10% -12.8% 21% -11.9%
15% -21.3% 14% -20.4%
20% -29.0% 13% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$23 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$631
Unrealized−$204
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses163 / 144
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions3
Markets (closed)307 / 310
History coverage112d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $70 +$453 +652%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $21 −$9 -46%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $28 −$22 -79%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $6 −$2 -30%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $18 +$26 +142%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $5 +$9 +167%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $45 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $18 −$10 -53%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $164 −$95 -58%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $20 −$12 -62%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $26 −$15 -57%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $17 −$3 -16%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $9 +$141 +1521%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $20 +$48 +237%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $26 +$27 +106%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $26 +$13 +49%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $25 +$70 +282%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 3 Haiti? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $40 +$353 +873%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $13 −$11 -84%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $99 −$94 -96%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$9 -92%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$4 -81%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $46 −$45 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? SELL Yes 100¢ $523 10m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 34m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 35m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 39m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 42m
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Germany? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 43m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 44m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 46m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 46m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 52m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? SELL Yes 13¢ $44 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Germany? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 44¢ $44 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 9¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $119 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 4¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? SELL Yes 7¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.54 · official $0.54 (match) · 1167 history records