Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5E 0x5e69…692c sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$82 (-32%) realized −$81 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$83
other 26% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +64.7% +49.0% 100% 100% +49.0%
≤30d 2 -17.7% -25.5% 50% 50% -49.2%
≤90d 2 -17.7% -25.5% 50% 50% -49.2%
all 2 -17.7% -25.5% 50% 50% -49.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 50% -49.2%
10% -32.6% 50% -54.1%
15% -39.1% 50% -58.5%
20% -45.1% 50% -62.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$125 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage14d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $64 +$42 +65%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $126 −$125 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $65 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $64 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $126 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.11 · official $64.11 (match) · 4 history records