Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e6a…521c world 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 394d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,982 (-59%) realized −$2,883 · open −$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%12W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days−$161
14 days−$161
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$2,375
other 15% −$96
politics 11% −$529
sports 0% +$6
culture 0% +$4
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-63.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -18.3% -26.1% 50% 50% -29.8%
≤30d 4 -18.3% -26.1% 50% 50% -29.8%
≤90d 4 -18.3% -26.1% 50% 50% -29.8%
all 68 -59.9% -63.7% 18% 13% -63.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.7% 13% -63.3%
10% -67.2% 13% -66.8%
15% -70.3% 13% -70.0%
20% -73.2% 12% -73.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$64 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

394d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$2,883
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses12 / 56
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage394d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 23¢ 22¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $100 $8 −$92 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 22 $142 +$110 +77%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 18 $302 −$293 -97%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Jun 18 $203 +$100 +49%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $80 −$77 -96%
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in F Feb 28 $55 −$55 -100%
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by January 31? Jan 14 $120 +$12 +10%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Jan 13 $100 +$129 +129%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Jan 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31? Jan 07 $190 −$190 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 06 $170 +$14 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jan 05 $316 −$139 -44%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? Dec 04 $105 +$11 +10%
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025? Dec 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Nov 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? Nov 30 $100 −$79 -79%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on November 29? Nov 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Syria strikes Israel by December 31? Nov 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by November 30? Nov 28 $91 −$91 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31? Nov 28 $303 −$303 -100%
Will Japanese PM apologize for China comments in 2025? Nov 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 30? Nov 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30? Nov 24 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24? Nov 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Nov 24 $75 +$41 +55%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14? Nov 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 7? Nov 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Winsome Earle-Sears win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 Nov 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7? Oct 31 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Oct 31 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24? Oct 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? Oct 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will UEFA ban or suspend Israel by October 31? Oct 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? Oct 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? Oct 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel strike 1 country in October 2025? Oct 10 $10 +$18 +182%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025? Oct 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory in 2025? Oct 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran in 2025? Oct 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FIFA ban or suspend Israel in 2025? Oct 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Another US military action against Iran before 2026? Oct 01 $400 −$400 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? Oct 01 $300 −$300 -100%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Sep 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 29 $5 −$5 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? Sep 29 $400 −$400 -100%
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $103 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 30¢ $302 3d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $80 3d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $203 41d
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in F BUY No 0¢ $45 113d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $239 113d
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in F BUY No 0¢ $5 113d
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in F BUY No 0¢ $5 113d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $142 158d
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by January 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $132 158d
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by January 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $120 159d
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $229 159d
US strike on Mexico by January 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 165d
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31? BUY No 27¢ $190 165d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $184 166d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $170 167d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $177 167d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $116 169d
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? SELL Yes 15¢ $116 200d
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 202d
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 202d
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 203d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 203d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $21 203d
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on November 29? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 205d
Syria strikes Israel by December 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 205d
Israel strikes Iran by November 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $90 205d
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 205d
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 205d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.16 · official $101.16 (match) · 110 history records