Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5E 0x5e6a…ae46 other 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$520 (+14%) realized +$492 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%60W / 49L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$558now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$158
14 days−$194
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$261
world 17% +$98
finance 8% +$52
sports 6% +$10
politics 3% +$34
crypto 1% −$20
tech 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -45.9% -51.0% 22% 22% -40.2%
≤30d 18 -14.5% -22.6% 39% 39% -22.3%
≤90d 54 +16.8% +5.7% 56% 52% -1.4%
all 109 +17.2% +6.1% 55% 50% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 50% +3.2%
10% -4.1% 47% -6.7%
15% -13.4% 40% -15.7%
20% -21.9% 38% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$558
Realized+$492
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses60 / 49
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)109 / 115
History coverage161d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 74¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 73¢ 78¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$25 -24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$20 -65%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -37%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$3 +295%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $101 +$11 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $30 −$30 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $5 +$3 +56%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $100 +$41 +41%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $31 +$46 +150%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $40 +$27 +67%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $30 −$25 -83%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? May 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $31 +$44 +145%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $301 +$29 +10%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? May 01 $50 −$32 -64%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 01 $100 +$43 +43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 30 $10 −$6 -65%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $10 +$16 +156%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $30 +$17 +56%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $30 −$11 -35%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $20 +$47 +237%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $30 −$22 -74%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 13 $60 +$19 +32%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $100 +$34 +34%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $5 +$22 +441%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-03-31? Apr 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $30 +$24 +82%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $20 +$26 +129%
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31? Mar 30 $100 +$20 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 38m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 38m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $78 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $100 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $33 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 22¢ $11 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $30 3d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 33¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 27¢ $30 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $100 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $100 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? SELL Down 1¢ $1 6d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 2¢ $1 6d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 8¢ $4 7d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 2¢ $1 7d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? SELL Up 96¢ $112 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 86¢ $101 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 21¢ $10 10d
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 54¢ $30 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Matteo Arnaldi 50¢ $8 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $557.69 · official $557.69 (match) · 236 history records