trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 50% | 50% | -7.1% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -24.0% | -31.2% | 33% | 33% | -30.7% |
| all | 10 | -44.5% | -49.8% | 20% | 20% | -55.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -49.8% | 20% | -55.7% |
| 10% | -54.6% | 20% | -60.0% |
| 15% | -59.0% | 10% | -63.8% |
| 20% | -63.0% | 10% | -67.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | No | 79¢ | 64¢ | $88 | $72 | −$17 (-19%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $34 | +$55 | +165% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 05 | $32 | −$32 | -99% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 05 | $38 | −$37 | -98% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jun 05 | $50 | +$18 | +35% |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Apr 07 | $36 | −$36 | -100% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Mar 27 | $61 | −$27 | -44% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Mar 22 | $49 | −$49 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Mar 20 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Mar 20 | $52 | −$52 | -100% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Mar 20 | $10 | $0 | -1% |