Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:29:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e71…afe6 weather 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$472 (+15%) realized +$401 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%42W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day57.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$265
14 days+$299
30 days+$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$370
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +10.2% -0.3% 40% 27% +10.0%
≤30d 100 +38.2% +25.0% 42% 35% +2.7%
≤90d 100 +38.2% +25.0% 42% 35% +2.7%
all 100 +38.2% +25.0% 42% 35% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.0% 35% +2.7%
10% ← realistic here +13.1% 30% -7.2%
15% +2.1% 23% -16.1%
20% -7.9% 18% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +68% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$12 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$306
Realized+$401
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses42 / 58
Open positions12
Markets (closed)100 / 112
History coverage15d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day57.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 60¢ 97¢ $122 $196 +$74 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+6%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? Yes 56¢ 94¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $38 −$11 -28%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $14 +$11 +77%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $7 −$4 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $54 +$15 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 −$2 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$44 +284%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $209 +$20 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$234 +1246%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$8 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $213 +$14 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$4 -63%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $85 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $65 +$23 +36%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$11 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 −$19 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 −$13 -42%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $18 −$11 -64%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 +$22 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $47 +$18 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$7 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$4 -30%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 +$12 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $7 $0 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$5 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -62%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -53%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$11 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$10 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$5 -79%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 7m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 9m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 10m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 11m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL Yes 35¢ $17 18m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 25m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.43 · official $307.32 (match) · 843 history records