Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e73…6697 world 245 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$49,879 (+17%) realized +$50,913 · open −$1,034
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%116W / 339L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$1,220per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$29,167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 85d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$15,357
other 14% −$1,448
finance 10% +$1,385
politics 5% +$5,064
economics 3% +$1,544
tech 0% −$763
sports 0% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-47.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 281 -69.1% -72.0% 9% 8% -7.8%
≤30d 319 -61.5% -65.1% 14% 12% -10.5%
≤90d 455 -41.8% -47.3% 25% 21% -6.9%
all 455 -41.8% -47.3% 25% 21% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.3% 21% -6.9%
10% -52.3% 17% -15.8%
15% ← realistic here -56.9% 13% -24.0%
20% -61.2% 11% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$453 vs −$141 · ×3.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$29,167
Realized+$50,913
Unrealized−$1,034
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses116 / 339
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions78
Markets (closed)455 / 245
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$1,220
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 78 History 455 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 48¢ 72¢ $3,340 $4,976 +$1,636 (+49%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 79¢ 86¢ $4,410 $4,844 +$434 (+10%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 28¢ $2,935 $2,039 −$896 (-31%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 80¢ $1,366 $1,557 +$191 (+14%)
Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 100¢ $857 $1,152 +$295 (+34%)
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? No 87¢ 97¢ $1,025 $1,137 +$112 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $1,021 $1,122 +$101 (+10%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 47¢ 62¢ $674 $885 +$211 (+31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 46¢ 18¢ $2,134 $854 −$1,279 (-60%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 52¢ 66¢ $603 $760 +$157 (+26%)
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 97¢ $510 $652 +$141 (+28%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 61¢ 84¢ $451 $616 +$165 (+36%)
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes 56¢ 46¢ $731 $609 −$122 (-17%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 81¢ 99¢ $487 $597 +$109 (+22%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 74¢ 88¢ $370 $438 +$68 (+18%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $484 $385 −$99 (-20%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $387 $362 −$26 (-7%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 95¢ 96¢ $288 $293 +$5 (+2%)
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No 60¢ 54¢ $302 $269 −$33 (-11%)
Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $244 $266 +$22 (+9%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 88¢ $210 $262 +$52 (+25%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 86¢ 87¢ $258 $261 +$3 (+1%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? Yes 25¢ 15¢ $422 $258 −$164 (-39%)
French election called by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 99¢ $194 $256 +$61 (+32%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 75¢ 76¢ $246 $247 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 313 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 12? Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31? Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 17 $60 −$85 -142%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of February Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30? Jun 17 $131 −$131 -100%
Will the Texas House pass HB 4 by August 19? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will NVIDIA say "Trump" during earnings call? Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31? Jun 17 $23 −$7 -30%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Jun 17 $192 −$681 -354%
Will Keir Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questio Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
James Comey in jail in 2025? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ghislaine Maxwell released from custody in 2025? Jun 17 $97 −$87 -90%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Jun 17 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13? Jun 17 $748 −$735 -98%
Will Trump say "Golf" during events with President of Finland on Oct 9 Jun 17 $149 −$149 -100%
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 1 Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler? Jun 17 $60 −$16 -27%
Will between 217 and 218 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next fun Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? Jun 17 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March? Jun 17 $218 −$218 -100%
Kash Patel out by September 30? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will no vote occur on a new funding bill by October 31? Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026 Jun 17 $245 −$317 -130%
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Megaquake in 2025? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Israeli ground operation against Fordow before August? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Khamenei" during WEF Address on January 21 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Trump declares another national emergency by December 31? Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7? Jun 17 $64 −$83 -130%
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on October 17? Jun 17 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in November? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? Jun 17 $143 −$143 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL No 4¢ $3 0m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL No 4¢ $8 0m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 86¢ $172 2m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 73¢ $0 22m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 86¢ $22 23m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 86¢ $150 23m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 73¢ $0 27m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 73¢ $1 28m
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? SELL No 61¢ $6 32m
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? SELL No 61¢ $1 32m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 71¢ $4,268 37m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 3¢ $193 37m
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 60¢ $314 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 76¢ $3 2h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 76¢ $53 3h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 76¢ $2 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 17¢ $8 3h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 75¢ $188 11h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 94¢ $378 11h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 94¢ $89 12h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 94¢ $22 12h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 94¢ $2 12h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 94¢ $76 12h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 75¢ $767 12h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 63¢ $78 14h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 63¢ $5 14h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 63¢ $6 14h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 63¢ $6 14h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 75¢ $1,488 14h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 57¢ $1,643 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,167.37 · official $29,167.61 (match) · 3500 history records