Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:04:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

5E 0x5e76…4afc sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$60 (-3%) realized −$118 · open +$58

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate48%13W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$69per market

Trades / day3.8pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$472now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$26

7 days−$46

14 days−$116

30 days−$116

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)-20.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	-11.4%	-19.8%	50%	50%	-12.4%
≤30d	27	-12.6%	-20.9%	48%	48%	-15.7%
≤90d	27	-12.6%	-20.9%	48%	48%	-15.7%
all	27	-12.6%	-20.9%	48%	48%	-15.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-20.9%	48%	-15.7%
10%	-28.5%	37%	-23.7%
15%	-35.4%	33%	-31.1%
20%	-41.7%	7%	-37.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -7% → late -18% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$24 vs −$31 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.73 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$472

Realized−$118

Unrealized+$58

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses13 / 14

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions3

Markets (closed)27 / 31

History coverage13d

Avg bet$69

Trades / day3.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	19¢	19¢	$189	$197	+$8 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	15¢	15¢	$147	$152	+$4 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	63¢	100¢	$78	$124	+$46 (+58%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5	Jun 24	$70	+$12	+17%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$97	−$14	-15%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$50	+$23	+46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$15	−$2	-15%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$30	−$30	-99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$51	−$51	-100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5	Jun 23	$100	+$16	+16%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5	Jun 23	$71	+$30	+43%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$20	+$9	+46%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$30	+$19	+62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$121	+$56	+46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5	Jun 20	$41	−$40	-99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$30	−$30	-99%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$413	−$74	-18%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$103	−$35	-34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5	Jun 20	$53	+$11	+20%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$20	+$10	+50%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$30	+$8	+26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$14	−$14	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$20	+$10	+50%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5	Jun 18	$48	+$90	+188%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$30	−$30	-99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$117	−$18	-16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$45	+$21	+48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$74	−$73	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	37m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	62¢	$18	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	65¢	$30	1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5	BUY	33¢	$10	2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$82	3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	85¢	$70	3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	15¢	$151	14h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$83	14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	48¢	$13	26h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	65¢	$30	26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	55¢	$15	26h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	31¢	$10	27h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	66¢	$10	27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	86¢	$100	30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	69¢	$71	30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	66¢	$51	30h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	68¢	$20	2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	61¢	$30	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	69¢	$71	4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	55¢	$41	4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	54¢	$30	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$201	4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$154	4d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$68	4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	83¢	$53	5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	66¢	$20	5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	79¢	$30	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $471.81 · official $481.80 · 77 history records