Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:59:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e76…0309 world 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$37 (-6%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%3W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$30
sports 9% −$6
other 8% −$1
tech 3% +$1
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -4.3% -13.4% 0% 0% -15.5%
≤90d 11 -4.3% -13.4% 0% 0% -15.5%
all 22 -8.0% -16.7% 14% 0% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 0% -15.5%
10% -24.7% 0% -23.6%
15% -32.0% 0% -31.0%
20% -38.6% 0% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses3 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage473d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $28 −$2 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $85 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $73 −$26 -35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $61 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 22 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $55 −$2 -4%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Dec 11 $9 +$1 +7%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jul 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $11 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Mar 17 $11 $0 -0%
Detroit Mercy vs. Northern Kentucky Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Senators vs. Capitals Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Incarnate Word vs. Northwestern State Mar 03 $17 −$6 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $26 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $29 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $29 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $7 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $5 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 39h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $26 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $17 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $31 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $31 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $31 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $31 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $28 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $28 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $31 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $32 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $30 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $45 26d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.24 · official $26.24 (match) · 68 history records