trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -4.3% | -13.4% | 0% | 0% | -15.5% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -4.3% | -13.4% | 0% | 0% | -15.5% |
| all | 22 | -8.0% | -16.7% | 14% | 0% | -15.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.7% | 0% | -15.5% |
| 10% | -24.7% | 0% | -23.6% |
| 15% | -32.0% | 0% | -31.0% |
| 20% | -38.6% | 0% | -37.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | 82¢ | 82¢ | $26 | $26 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 17 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 26 | $28 | −$2 | -7% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 26 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $85 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 25 | $73 | −$26 | -35% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 24 | $61 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 24 | $28 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | May 23 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 22 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 21 | $55 | −$2 | -4% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? | Dec 11 | $9 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? | Jul 02 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? | Jul 02 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? | Jul 01 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi | Jun 26 | $11 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 23 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? | Mar 17 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Detroit Mercy vs. Northern Kentucky | Mar 03 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Senators vs. Capitals | Mar 03 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Incarnate Word vs. Northwestern State | Mar 03 | $17 | −$6 | -37% |