Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:14:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e79…7960 crypto 23 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$48 (-32%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$34
other 27% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -14.7% -22.8% 43% 43% -40.5%
≤30d 23 -14.7% -22.8% 43% 43% -40.5%
≤90d 23 -14.7% -22.8% 43% 43% -40.5%
all 23 -14.7% -22.8% 43% 43% -40.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 43% -40.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 39% -46.2%
15% -36.9% 35% -51.4%
20% -43.1% 35% -56.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$16 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$10 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$6 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$2 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records