Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:52:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5E 0x5e7b…8767 other 181 markets active 0h ago coverage 1134d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$20,222 (+10%) realized +$20,344 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate83%147W / 30L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$1,088per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$786now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$351
7 days+$1,841
14 days+$2,160
30 days+$2,336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$9,828
politics 36% +$8,442
world 3% −$212
crypto 3% +$1,810
finance 2% +$94
sports 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +10.6% +0.0% 83% 45% -6.3%
≤30d 90 +12.4% +1.7% 88% 38% -6.2%
≤90d 96 +11.8% +1.2% 88% 39% -6.0%
all 177 +11.0% +0.5% 83% 38% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 38% -0.2%
10% -9.2% 16% -9.8%
15% -17.9% 11% -18.5%
20% -26.0% 7% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$593) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$70 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.59 per $1 lost it wins $11.59
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1134d coverage
Net worth$786
Realized+$20,344
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses147 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)177 / 181
History coverage1134d
Avg bet$1,088
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 46¢ $807 $667 −$140 (-17%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 54¢ $44 $56 +$12 (+29%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 40¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $243 +$12 +5%
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $255 +$100 +39%
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $376 +$62 +17%
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $330 +$160 +48%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $9,775 +$18 +0%
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $23 −$4 -16%
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $12,792 −$43 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $266 +$45 +17%
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $340 +$65 +19%
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,514 +$209 +14%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $172 +$15 +9%
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $131 +$15 +11%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $545 +$25 +4%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $768 +$188 +25%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,439 +$119 +8%
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $233 +$42 +18%
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $322 +$15 +5%
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $423 +$3 +1%
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $907 +$164 +18%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $670 −$143 -21%
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $56 +$4 +7%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $732 −$291 -40%
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $96 +$28 +29%
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $200 +$20 +10%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $200 +$88 +44%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $44 +$32 +73%
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $120 +$21 +18%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $430 +$48 +11%
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $3 $0 +6%
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $59 +$10 +17%
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $600 +$9 +2%
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $361 +$79 +22%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $694 +$46 +7%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $158 +$34 +22%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $97 +$4 +4%
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $400 +$42 +10%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $911 +$34 +4%
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $236 +$41 +17%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $861 −$4 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $753 +$3 +0%
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $171 +$6 +3%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $220 +$30 +14%
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $16 +$1 +3%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 16 $11,584 +$549 +5%
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $17 +$2 +14%
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $27 +$4 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $44 9m
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $61 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $171 1h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 50¢ $10 6h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $44 8h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $22 10h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $255 11h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $243 12h
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 72¢ $216 16h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $438 16h
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 67¢ $134 17h
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $250 17h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $180 17h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $196 17h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $5 24h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $1 24h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $1 24h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 50¢ $4 26h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 50¢ $20 26h
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $490 29h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $433 29h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 40¢ $198 29h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 50¢ $30 30h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 50¢ $6 30h
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $330 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $786.18 · official $786.18 (match) · 2766 history records