Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e7d…ca41 other 454 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,402 (-6%) realized −$4,411 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate19%85W / 367L
Whale WR9%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$342
7 days−$1,246
14 days−$1,792
30 days−$2,144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$2,066
politics 24% −$1,180
economics 6% −$440
sports 5% −$161
tech 5% −$692
world 4% −$269
crypto 1% −$94
culture 1% −$85
finance 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -9.8% -18.4% 8% 0% -13.2%
≤30d 123 -13.0% -21.3% 7% 1% -13.3%
≤90d 452 -11.4% -19.8% 19% 8% -15.3%
all 452 -11.4% -19.8% 19% 8% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 8% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 4% -23.4%
15% -34.5% 3% -30.8%
20% -40.9% 2% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 9% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$4,411
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses85 / 367
Whale WR (big bets)9%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions2
Markets (closed)452 / 454
History coverage80d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 3¢ $17 $27 +$9 (+55%)
Will Marcelo Maranata win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? No 92¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $259 −$10 -4%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $519 −$20 -4%
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 20 $9 −$1 -14%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3,720 −$70 -2%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 20 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $265 +$2 +1%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $98 −$3 -4%
Will Iraq be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 -3%
Will Valve remove Dust 2 from the Map Pool? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 19 $389 −$10 -3%
Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 19 $82 −$3 -3%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 19 $336 −$36 -11%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 19 $608 −$40 -6%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $23 −$8 -35%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 19 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Jun 19 $155 −$7 -5%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 18 $336 −$18 -5%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 18 $546 −$18 -3%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $672 −$11 -2%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 18 $640 −$88 -14%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $246 +$1 +0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B? Jun 18 $830 −$92 -11%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 18 $85 −$2 -2%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $651 −$16 -2%
World Cup Goals H2H: Neymar vs. Vinicius Jr. Jun 17 $47 −$2 -3%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Jun 17 $400 −$44 -11%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $4 $0 -12%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 17 $435 −$15 -3%
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Jun 17 $482 −$98 -20%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? Jun 17 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $702 −$27 -4%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $310 −$22 -7%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by June 30? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -92%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,380 −$61 -4%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $468 −$4 -1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $1,120 −$15 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5,412 +$6 +0%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $42 −$3 -7%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $356 +$15 +4%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $154 −$9 -6%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Jun 16 $370 −$12 -3%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $1,909 −$29 -2%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $36 −$2 -5%
Will Valve remove Ancient from the Map Pool? Jun 15 $8 −$6 -75%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $131 −$1 -1%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $193 −$3 -1%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $141 −$3 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,740 −$66 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 3¢ $0 33m
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 3¢ $0 34m
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 27¢ $48 1h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 27¢ $49 1h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 72¢ $214 1h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 75¢ $225 2h
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 8¢ $8 6h
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 9¢ $9 6h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $17 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $14 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $1,133 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $60 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $61 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $60 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $60 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $60 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $60 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $60 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $60 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $60 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $60 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $14 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $14 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $14 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $14 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $9 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $9 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $5 7h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $1,900 7h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $18 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.68 · official $26.52 (match) · 1869 history records