Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:49:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5E 0x5e7f…333f crypto 1921 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$116 (-1%) realized −$106 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate63%1157W / 673L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day75.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$14
14 days+$2
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 644 -3.6% -12.8% 80% 67% -9.9%
≤30d 1830 +0.2% -9.4% 63% 58% -9.3%
≤90d 1830 +0.2% -9.4% 63% 58% -9.3%
all 1830 +0.2% -9.4% 63% 58% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 58% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 39% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 35% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 32% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$106
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses1157 / 673
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1830 / 1921
History coverage27d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day75.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1830 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 88¢ 64¢ $35 $25 −$10 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $23 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $37 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $32 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $33 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $28 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $24 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $19 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $24 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $18 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $12 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $35 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $23 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $20 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $19 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $17 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $14 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $12 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $16 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.08 · official $14.02 · 3180 history records