Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:06:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5E
0x5e83…3bb7
sports · 500 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$17,098 -33%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16,895 · open −$693
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,889
Realized−$16,895
Unrealized−$693
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses145 / 268
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$370
Open positions87
Markets (closed)413 / 500
History coverage37d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day38.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 87 History 413 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$656
7 days−$2,475
14 days−$17,953
30 days−$16,895
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $4,037 $3,560 −$476 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3,275 $3,251 −$24 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $226 $230 +$4 (+2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 21¢ 100¢ $26 $123 +$97 (+369%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 80¢ 100¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $63 $56 −$7 (-12%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Over 86¢ 100¢ $48 $56 +$8 (+16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 76¢ 77¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $22 $28 +$6 (+27%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $21 $23 +$3 (+12%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 11¢ 10¢ $19 $16 −$2 (-13%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 60¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-16%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 52¢ $13 $14 +$2 (+16%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Australia to win the second half? Jun 14 $10 +$19 +188%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $238 +$74 +31%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $14 −$7 -47%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $51 +$53 +105%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 +$44 +108%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $70 +$144 +205%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $32 +$12 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $338 −$326 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $176 −$176 -100%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 14 $31 −$22 -73%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $31 +$169 +550%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $44 −$3 -6%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $110 −$109 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 14 $6 +$15 +238%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $64 −$54 -84%
Morocco to win the second half? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
FC Lahti vs. Seinajoen JK: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $41 +$55 +136%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Second half draw? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $12 −$11 -90%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $294 −$292 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $302 −$297 -98%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Raphinha: 2+ goals Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $4 +$6 +146%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $68 +$24 +36%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $11 +$13 +120%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $21 +$14 +64%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $74 −$66 -90%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $18 −$17 -99%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $80 +$3 +4%
FC Lahti vs. Seinajoen JK: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $40 +$33 +84%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 65% −$15,768
other 29% −$1,040
crypto 2% −$376
economics 2% −$10
tech 1% −$77
finance 1% −$294
world 0% −$17
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 7m
Australia to win the second half? SELL Yes 51¢ $30 7m
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 21m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 22m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 24m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 26m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 28m
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 29m
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $9 31m
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 93¢ $11 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 48m
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 92¢ $10 54m
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 87¢ $10 55m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 58m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 59m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $10 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $38 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $8 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $127 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 204 -9.1% -17.7% 39% 32% -30.7%
≤30d 393 -21.4% -28.9% 34% 30% -47.2%
≤90d 413 -20.5% -28.1% 35% 31% -47.1%
all 413 -20.5% -28.1% 35% 31% -47.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.1% 31% -47.1%
10% ← realistic here -35.0% 29% -52.2%
15% -41.2% 24% -56.8%
20% -47.0% 19% -61.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,889.00 · official $7,889.01 (match) · 1662 history records