Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e89…3e0a sports 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,199 (+17%) realized +$1,210 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%30W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,026
7 days+$1,158
14 days+$1,076
30 days+$1,061
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$2,119
other 26% −$1,067
world 1% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -4.9% -13.9% 21% 20% +12.5%
≤30d 135 -4.5% -13.6% 22% 21% +8.8%
≤90d 135 -4.5% -13.6% 22% 21% +8.8%
all 135 -4.5% -13.6% 22% 21% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 21% +8.8%
10% -21.9% 21% -1.6%
15% -29.4% 21% -11.1%
20% -36.3% 21% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$43 · ×4.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$334
Realized+$1,210
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses30 / 105
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions10
Markets (closed)135 / 145
History coverage18d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+37%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $45 $40 −$5 (-12%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Under $20 $28 +$8 (+41%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) IR Iran $30 $16 −$14 (-46%)
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) IR Iran $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $51 +$110 +216%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$134 +262%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $103 +$1,008 +982%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 +$398 +388%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$403 +785%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $31 +$307 +997%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-4.5) Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 +$131 +129%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: United States (-5.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: United States (-4.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY IR Iran $10 1h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran $31 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $21 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 2h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 10¢ $51 13h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 18¢ $51 13h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 31¢ $51 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 13¢ $21 14h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $10 14h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 15h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan $103 18h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 20¢ $102 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $51 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $31 18h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 39¢ $102 22h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 22¢ $31 22h
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 12¢ $51 22h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 22h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 25h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany $31 25h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 11¢ $51 25h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $51 25h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 44¢ $51 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $31 36h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 37h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 37h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden $31 37h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden $51 37h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye $10 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $334.15 · official $332.68 (match) · 211 history records