Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5E 0x5e92…9ead crypto 759 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (207 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,900 (+12%) realized +$1,902 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%363W / 749L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day206.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$685
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (207 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 661 -52.6% -57.1% 20% 19% -56.8%
≤30d 1112 -31.3% -37.9% 33% 29% -17.6%
≤90d 1112 -31.3% -37.9% 33% 29% -17.6%
all 1112 -31.3% -37.9% 33% 29% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover206.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.9% 29% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -43.8% 21% -25.5%
15% -49.2% 18% -32.7%
20% -54.2% 13% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$1,902
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses363 / 749
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1112 / 759
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day206.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 24¢ 16¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.91 · official $11.72 · 3500 history records