Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5E 0x5e93…79f3 sports 353 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,460 (-3%) realized −$1,450 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%190W / 161L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$722est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$117
14 days−$1,642
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$2,774
other 13% +$256
world 1% +$345
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +5.0% -5.0% 50% 50% -12.8%
≤30d 157 -1.5% -10.9% 52% 50% -9.3%
≤90d 305 -3.1% -12.3% 52% 51% -12.1%
all 351 +0.7% -8.9% 54% 53% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 53% -12.0%
10% -17.6% 50% -20.4%
15% -25.6% 44% -28.1%
20% -32.9% 31% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$106 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$1,450
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses190 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$722
Open positions1
Markets (closed)351 / 353
History coverage105d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-20? Yes 54¢ 36¢ $32 $22 −$10 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $258 −$179 -69%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $158 −$44 -28%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $192 +$63 +33%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $134 +$58 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $79 +$55 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $43 +$35 +81%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $46 −$3 -7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $38 +$8 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$13 +54%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $37 −$12 -33%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $325 −$174 -54%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $164 +$47 +29%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $100 +$64 +64%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $81 +$62 +76%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $97 −$17 -18%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $111 −$53 -47%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $71 +$45 +63%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche Jun 18 $66 +$40 +61%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $36 +$30 +82%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $22 −$22 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $63 −$47 -75%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 +$40 +176%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $27 −$4 -15%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $46 −$19 -41%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $24 +$22 +91%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $11 +$13 +128%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $68 −$67 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $157 −$89 -57%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $210 −$54 -26%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $120 +$91 +76%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $84 +$36 +43%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $59 +$24 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $27 +$32 +119%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$34 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $46 −$11 -25%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 14 $33 +$13 +40%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $55 −$54 -98%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 12 $169 +$56 +33%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $150 +$19 +13%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $170 −$20 -12%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $73 +$96 +132%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $146 −$144 -98%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $41 +$14 +35%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $47 −$6 -12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $92 −$45 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 54¢ $32 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 27¢ $32 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $47 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $47 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $211 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 33¢ $114 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $158 5h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 95¢ $185 5h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 92¢ $69 5h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 70¢ $192 6h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert SELL Tommy Paul 94¢ $192 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 65¢ $134 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 93¢ $134 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 54¢ $79 9h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $78 21h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $43 23h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 30¢ $43 23h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $46 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 54¢ $46 24h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $38 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 94¢ $38 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 28h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Frances Tiafoe 29¢ $25 28h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 42¢ $37 29h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 20¢ $37 29h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 60¢ $114 29h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 34¢ $114 29h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 61¢ $211 30h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 69¢ $211 31h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 53¢ $164 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.50 · official $21.50 (match) · 711 history records