Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:19:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

5E 0x5e95…61d6 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$1,102 (+15%) realized +$1,108 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate64%16W / 9L

Whale WR60%big bets

Drawdown55%max

Avg bet$264per market

Trades / day8.9pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit22%portable

Net worth$594now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-1.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	+8.7%	-1.6%	64%	60%	+1.9%
≤30d	25	+8.7%	-1.6%	64%	60%	+1.9%
≤90d	25	+8.7%	-1.6%	64%	60%	+1.9%
all	25	+8.7%	-1.6%	64%	60%	+1.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.6%	60%	+1.9%
10%	-11.1%	56%	-7.8%
15%	-19.6%	52%	-16.7%
20%	-27.5%	32%	-24.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

6% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +5% → late +12% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$134 vs −$146 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$594

Realized+$1,108

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses16 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)60%

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)25 / 27

History coverage6d

Avg bet$264

Trades / day8.9

Drawdown55%

Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$500	$496	−$4 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$305	−$229	-75%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$506	+$214	+42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$768	+$368	+48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$514	+$254	+50%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$201	+$56	+28%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$328	+$130	+40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$33	−$8	-23%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$200	+$135	+67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$504	−$336	-67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$347	+$189	+55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$202	+$72	+36%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$231	+$44	+19%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$508	−$342	-67%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 15	$51	+$41	+80%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$253	−$250	-99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$455	+$323	+71%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia?	Jun 15	$61	+$38	+63%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	$0	-1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$203	+$115	+57%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan?	Jun 14	$61	+$45	+75%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$260	+$16	+6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$162	+$96	+59%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$299	−$133	-44%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	20¢	$102	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$202	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$202	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	12¢	$76	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	46¢	$305	3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	84¢	$721	6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$506	8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	96¢	$11	10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	82¢	$251	10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$506	27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	74¢	$768	28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$6	29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$305	31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	99¢	$258	31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	49¢	$203	32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$201	32h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$25	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$303	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	25¢	$26	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	31¢	$33	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$335	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$200	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	26¢	$167	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$504	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$347	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	73¢	$202	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	81¢	$275	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$231	4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	15¢	$166	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.65 · official $593.65 (match) · 61 history records