Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5E 0x5e99…99bc other 7 markets active 5d ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$148 (-70%) realized −$107 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$44
world 47% −$100
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$27 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage28d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 17¢ $101 $60 −$41 (-40%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $0 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $100 6d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 9d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $101 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.34 · official $64.34 (match) · 11 history records